Wojtas pisze: ↑

31 lip 2020, 15:43

A jeśli już bym miał grać na forexie, to czy warto grać akurat na parach PLN/coś tam ?

GacoPL pisze: ↑

04 sie 2020, 18:27

"Fajny" wybuch ... dzieje sie w tamtym rejonie - ciekawe kto jest za to odpowiedzialny .

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... to+zero%29

GacoPL pisze: ↑

04 sie 2020, 18:27

"Fajny" wybuch ... dzieje sie w tamtym rejonie - ciekawe kto jest za to odpowiedzialny .

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... to+zero%29

GacoPL pisze: ↑

30 lip 2020, 14:34

33% WOW ... ja naprawde nie wiem jak amerykanski rynek moze byc tak wysoko.

We were all struck by the enormity of the reported decline in second quarter real GDP. Before now, no one’s ever seen an economy contract by one-third in three months! However, thinking about the results in connection with writing this memo raised some questions:

I had immediately assumed Q2 GDP was down $1.81 trillion, or 32.9%, from Q2 of last year. But the actual decline was only $0.45T, from $4.76T to $4.31T, or 9.5%.

Could it have been a decline of $1.81T from Q1’s $4.63T, bringing Q2 GDP to $2.82T? But going from $4.63T to $2.82T would mean a decline of 39.1%. And anyway, that couldn’t have been the case, since actual Q2 GDP was $4.31T.

Or was it a projected drop of $1.81T from actual 2019 full-year GDP of $19.09T? No, that would represent a decline of only 9.5%.


I couldn’t make sense of the numbers, so I consulted Conrad DeQuadros of Brean Capital for help understanding them. I found his answer surprising, and you might as well.


Have you thought about what the reported 32.9% decline in second quarter GDP really means? Answer: it’s the percentage by which 1Q2021 GDP would be below 1Q2020 GDP if GDP were to decline in the next three quarters at the same rate as it did in 2Q2020. If that seems incredibly complex, so was Conrad’s explanation:

Actual second quarter real GDP (without seasonal adjustment or annualization) was $4.31 trillion. That was down 7.0% from $4.63T in Q1 on the same basis.

If the three subsequent quarters were also down 7.0% from quarter to quarter, 3Q2020 would be $4.00T, 4Q2020 would be $3.72T, and 1Q2021 would be $3.46T. (These are figures you’d never see, since they omit seasonal adjustment, annualization and adjustment for inflation. But I think they present a fair if not technically correct picture for these purposes.)

It’s that figure of $3.46T for 1Q2021 GDP that – after annualization and adjustments for seasonality and inflation – would be 32.9% below GDP in 1Q2020.

Interestingly, after the assumed declines, GDP in the four quarters 2Q2020 through 1Q2021 (as enumerated above) would sum to $15.49T for the year. But that would be down only 18.9% from the actual total of $19.11T in the four prior quarters (2Q2019 through 1Q2020).


So, again, the 32.9% reported decline in Q2 is the difference between 1Q2020 GDP and projected 1Q2021 GDP assuming quarterly GDP continues to fall at the 2Q2020 rate. But nobody expects that to happen. Which means the 32.9% is a highly misleading, exaggerated figure. Nothing went down by one-third, and nothing is likely to do so.